Research record · Historically supported
Ignition: Big-Move Odds Research
Ignition flags a big candle on heavy dollar volume that closes strong, on a coin that hasn’t fired in the last 48 hours. On 4½ months of data held back from all development, these signals went on to move at least 5 times the coin’s normal range 34–35% of the time, against 26% for ordinary big candles of the same size. Ignition tells you a big move is more likely. It does not tell you which way.
- 1-hour: 34% of Ignitions moved 5× their normal range within 24 hours, against 26% for matched ordinary big candles (1.29×).
- 15-minute: 35% did so within 6 hours, against 26% (1.38×).
- Ignition does not predict direction. Every direction idea we tested fell short on unseen data.
- Most signals still don’t make a move that big. These are odds, not a promise.
How we tested it
We built and tuned the new version on May 2024 to November 2025, then ran it once on 30 May to 9 October 2026, data nobody had looked at, across 299 coins. An independent session that had seen none of the development work ran that final test. All the pass/fail rules were written down before it ran, and it could only be run once.
Each Ignition was compared with an ordinary big candle on the same coin, of the same size, at a similarly volatile time. A “big move” means price travelled at least 5 times the coin’s average true range (ATR) from the signal’s close, in either direction, within the next 24 candles.
| Chart | Ignitions with a big move | Ordinary big candles | Ratio (95% range) | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-hour (within 24h) | 34.2% | 26.5% | 1.29× (1.11–1.52) | 3,293 |
| 15-minute (within 6h) | 35.5% | 25.6% | 1.38× (1.22–1.56) | 5,554 |
What it does not tell you
Which way the move goes. Over 24 hours, big moves leaned slightly toward the candle’s direction, but not reliably enough to count on. Ignitions that broke a 3-day range, or went with the day’s trend, looked promising during development (around 70%), but came in at 58–61% on the unseen data, short of the bar we had set. So WarRoom shows no direction for Ignition.
How the very next candle behaves. It often pulls back first.
Limits
- The odds were measured on candles between 1 and 3 times their normal range (1.2–3 on the 1-hour chart).
- The held-out window is 4½ months. Markets change, and we will re-check the odds as new data arrives.
- Many coins often fire in the same hour when the whole market moves. Those signals count fully, but they are not independent of each other.
- Costs, fills and your own entries are not part of these numbers.
Frequently asked questions
Is Ignition a buy or sell signal?
No. It says a big move is more likely than usual, not which way. Use it to decide where to pay attention and how much room a position may need.
How do I make an entry using Ignition?
Ignition tells you when, not which way, so the side is your call. Don’t chase the blast candle: the next candle often pulls back first. Wait for price to pick a side at your own levels, and watch how far it has travelled since the blast in the Scout. Give the trade room: about a third of Ignitions went on to move 5 times the coin’s normal range, in either direction, so set your stop and size before you enter. We have not tested any entry rule, so treat this as a way to read the signal, not a strategy.
Educational content, not financial advice. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.