Research record · Experimental
Stealth Accumulation & Distribution: Research Record
Stealth Accumulation and Stealth Distribution are experimental research rules for one daily view. That Scout view is currently unavailable because its verified production feed and first snapshot are not ready. BTC’s 10-day move determines which list the frozen rules would produce. Distribution held up on held-out data; Accumulation did not. This page records the research and limits, not live output.
- The accumulation rule would select up to 10 small coins with speeding-up spot buying during a BTC drawdown. Its held-out test fell short, and most of its past gap came from coin size.
- The distribution rule would select coins with the least open interest for their futures trading volume during a BTC rally. On held-out rally days, those coins did worse over the next 5 days in every rally tested.
- The Scout control is disabled: WarRoom currently publishes no live Stealth list or notifications.
What the frozen rules define
The frozen rules describe a daily list after the 4-hour candle that closes at 00:00 UTC. If the production data path becomes ready, BTC’s 10-day move would select the relevant list. A list requires at least 30 coins with every input and contains at most 10 coins.
- BTC’s 10-day move −3.15% or lower (a drawdown): the accumulation rule ranks smaller coins first, then by the increase in their 3-day spot buying share over its 10-day share. It would list up to 10 qualifying coins from the top fifth.
- BTC’s 10-day move +3.48% or higher (a rally): the distribution rule ranks coins by open interest relative to their futures trading volume and would list up to 10.
- Between the thresholds, or with missing data: the rule defines no list. This is not a live production status.
What the research found
Distribution: a pre-registered search looked for coins that do worse than the rest during BTC rallies. Coins with little open interest for their trading volume stood out, and data the research team had kept aside confirmed it: on rally days, the fifth of coins with the least open interest for their volume did worse than the other coins over the following 5 days, in all 6 rallies in that data. The 10-coin list showed the same gap in two recent periods, but that cut was described, not tested.
Accumulation: a second pre-registered search, on data from June 2022 to May 2024, chose small coins whose spot buying is speeding up. Its run on held-out 2020 data fell short. Described afterwards, the list was ahead of the other coins in all four periods checked, but most of that came from the coins being small, and trading costs on small coins could absorb it.
How the data is recorded
The rules were frozen on 26 October 2026 before they were shown. A verified production data source, scheduled producer and first published snapshot are not ready, so there is no live daily record to track. No performance numbers are presented as current product results.
What it is not
- Not advice, not a recommendation and not a prediction.
- It sends no notifications, and it feeds nothing else in WarRoom: no alerts, scores or other presets.
- All research results are before trading costs, from Binance spot flow and Bybit open interest.
Frequently asked questions
Why are Accumulation and Distribution so different?
Because the research found different things. Light open interest during a rally held up on held-out data; the accumulation candidate did not. The Scout view is currently unavailable until its verified production feed and first snapshot are ready.
Should I act on the list?
There is no live Stealth list in WarRoom right now. The historical research is not a recommendation or a prediction.
Educational content, not financial advice. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.